Resilinc Special Report

Middle East Conflict and Global Oil Supply Chain Outlook

Escalating military activity across Iran, Israel, and the broader Gulf region is constraining oil supply flows and disrupting pricing mechanisms that underpin global energy markets. Maritime movement through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed sharply as operators suspend transits and insurers withdraw coverage, while attacks on energy infrastructure and production facilities have reduced available output across key exporting regions.
At the same time, benchmark pricing for Middle Eastern crude is showing signs of distortion as physical delivery constraints narrow the pool of tradable supply. These conditions are pushing costs higher while reducing reliability in energy procurement, creating sustained pressure across industrial supply chains. This report examines how supply disruption, pricing dislocation, and downstream feedstock shortages are interacting, and provides insight into how these dynamics are reshaping global trade and production continuity.
Key Insights:
  • Refined fuel exports from eight major Middle Eastern producers averaged 9.71 million barrels per day in the week to March 15, down 61% from 25.13 million barrels per day in February
  • The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%, citing uncertainty around the conflict’s longer-term economic impact
  • Freight rates to the Gulf have risen from approximately $1,500 to nearly $6,000 per TEU as war-risk insurance premiums and security costs escalate