Resilinc Special Report

Taiwan Strait Conflict Risk Assessment and Potential Global Supply Chain Impact

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait remain elevated as China sustains military and maritime pressure around Taiwan and Taipei expands preparations for potential disruption. Recent developments include coordinated PLA air and naval operations, growing Chinese maritime enforcement activity east of Taiwan and Taiwanese exercises focused on maintaining communications and critical operations during a crisis.
Taiwan’s trade and manufacturing remain highly active, but prolonged restrictions on maritime access could disrupt advanced semiconductor, AI hardware and electronics supply chains while constraining the energy and industrial inputs needed to sustain production. This Special Report examines the indicators that could signal further escalation, proposes thresholds for measuring changes in Taiwan Strait risk and identifies the products and supply chains most exposed to potential disruption.
Key Insights:
  • Taiwan exported $74.8 billion in goods in June 2026, up 40.3% YoY indicating elevated geopolitical pressure has not yet translated into broad trade disruption
  • China conducted 208 PLA aerial sorties around Taiwan in June 2026, while Chinese official and government-vessel detections more than doubled in May 2026
  • Taiwan relies on Qatar for approximately 33.7% of its LNG imports, linking maritime access directly to the energy supply needed to sustain semiconductor and advanced manufacturing