AI ignites a new semiconductor supercycle
Artificial intelligence isn’t just transforming industries; it’s rewriting the economics of the global chip market.
According to Resilinc’s latest Special Report, AI driving semiconductor supercycle and testing the semiconductor supply chain, the world’s semiconductor industry is amid what analysts are calling a new “supercycle”, a multi-year expansion powered by the surge in AI infrastructure, advanced memory, and data center technologies. Global chip revenue hit $630 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $910 billion by 2026, marking the first time in three decades the sector has posted three straight years of double-digit growth.
For manufacturers, that means opportunity… and pressure.
Surging demand strains memory and fabrication capacity
The explosion of AI data centers being driven by AI model training and AI inference at scale has created a hunger for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips that’s pushing supply chains to their limits. Companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are riding the wave, prioritizing premium AI memory production even as traditional DRAM and NAND supplies tighten. At the same time, foundries such as SMIC operate near 96% capacity, a sign that the entire ecosystem is stretched thin.
“The memory market is in short supply and prices have surged significantly,” said Zhao Haijun, Co-CEO of SMIC. “This supercycle is also intensifying competition for foundries, as customers try to negotiate lower contract prices for other integrated circuits to offset rising memory costs.”
That tension between runaway demand and limited capacity has set off a domino effect across industries. AI-linked memory prices have soared with DRAM up 170% year-over-year and NAND up 10% year-on-year, while other manufacturers struggle to secure components. Bosch, for example, has implemented short-time work programs at its German factories to cope with chip shortages, a reminder that even legacy-node components remain essential to automotive and industrial production.
Geopolitics and regionalization redraw the chip value chain
Meanwhile, the geopolitical backdrop is amplifying the strain. Tesla’s directive to eliminate China-made components from U.S.-built vehicles marks one of the boldest reshoring efforts of the year, part of a broader regionalization trend seen throughout the semiconductor supply chain. Similar supply chain strategic shifts are unfolding in Asia, where Powertech Technology’s acquisition of AUO’s Hsinchu facility signals Taiwan’s intent to expand advanced packaging capacity for AI and high-performance computing chips. These moves illustrate a manufacturing landscape in flux, one where agility and localization are quickly becoming competitive advantages.
Investor optimism vs. market caution. Analysts debate semiconductor trajectory
Even as production ramps up, investor sentiment tells a split story. In the West, skepticism about inflated valuations has begun to surface. SoftBank’s $5.8 billion sale of its Nvidia stake and Michael Burry’s short bets on AI stocks made headlines in 2025, triggering a 3% drop in the Nasdaq Composite, its worst week since April. Yet in Asia, analysts remain confident, viewing AI’s momentum as a structural transformation rather than a fleeting bubble. The global chip narrative now sits at the intersection of optimism and caution, one driven by engineers, the other by investors.
A supercycle that demand super-resilience
As the report notes, the semiconductor supercycle is not just an economic milestone; it’s a test of global supply-chain agility. Rising power demands from AI data centers, tightening energy grids, and export controls are all converging to redefine how and where chips are made, forcing major supply chain strategic shifts. Resilinc’s findings show that manufacturers must build supply chain resiliency to mitigate risks before they cascade downstream.
In a world where AI is the driver, the question isn’t whether the semiconductor supercycle will continue, it’s whether the high-tech supply chain can keep up.
Read the full report: AI driving semiconductor supercycle and testing the semiconductor supply chain (Resilinc, November 2025).
