Resilinc Special Report
Russia-Ukraine Geopolitical Risk Report and Global Supply Chain Impact
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt energy and transportation infrastructure, creating supply pressures that extend beyond the region. Recent developments include renewed Russian diesel exports following a partial reopening, continued refinery constraints and strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. Resumed shipments could improve fuel availability, but damaged processing capacity and unreliable transport connections can continue raising costs and delaying deliveries, including for businesses without direct operations in either country. Resilinc’s Special Report examines how these developments affect global supply chains and identifies priorities for assessing supplier dependencies, recovery capacity and targeted mitigation.
Key Insights:
- Russian refineries sustained at least 22 attacks in August 2026. Certain damaged processing units could take six to eight months to replace, extending production constraints beyond the attacks
- Russia partially reopened diesel exports on October 10, but constrained refinery capacity continues to limit supply recovery. Resumed shipments do not establish that additional fuel will reach buyers consistently
- Ukraine reported power outages across 12 regions following Russian attacks reported on October 20. Disruption to electricity can affect suppliers even when their own facilities remain undamaged